Another Poll Shows a Tight Race

The most recent poll on the civil unions and marraige ban once again shows this is going to be a very tight race.
According to the WISC-TV-sponsored survey, 48 percent of those polled said that they would vote for the amendment if the November election were held today. About 40 percent oppose the measure and 12 percent said that they are undecided.

The telephone poll randomly called 600 likely voters over a three-day period from Aug. 14 to 16. The margin of error in the survey is 4 percent.
We all know Election Day results are the only real gauge on the issue-- not the polls-- but that undecided 12 percent is a good sign. It shows all of our hard work is paying off and people are starting to read the ban more carefully. University of Wisconsin political science professor Charles Franklin agrees. From this Chanel3000 story:
Franklin said that he also believes the narrow gap determined by the survey results suggests the strength of Fair Wisconsin, the group heading the effort to defeat the amendment.

6 Comments:

At 8:28 AM, Anonymous Keith said...

What's happenning? Rather than "tight race" I would have used the word "gap growing." The numbers are pretty grim, and worse than in prior polls.

What are we doing wrong?

Or what are Julaine et al doing right?

Or can we chalk this one up to the WISC-sponsored methodology?

 
At 6:59 PM, Blogger Ingrid Ankerson said...

The good news about this poll, Keith, is it's the first time we've seen support for the ban under 50%.

We still obviously have a lot of work to do. But I think door canvassing is what's going to push us over the winning edge. Those one-on-one conversations are how we'll sway the undecideds to our side.

 
At 7:30 PM, Anonymous Keith said...

True enough, Ingrid, about the importance of the one-on-one. Every day, I have conversations with people who have NO IDEA that this amendment risks shutting entire classes of people out of the legal system.

The philosophy of the campaign seems to be the rules of exponents. I tell 7 people a week, and they tell 7 people a week, etc, and pretty soon everyone is voting against the ban.

I guess my bias throoughout this campaign, and a bit of my panic, is that we live frequently in a universe of one-to-many. I've been waiting for the bug guns opinion leaders to come out against the ban.

We get these endorsements from unions and advocacy groups and wee mustard seed denominations of believers.

But I guess I am waiting for Tommy Thompson to appear on the CBS evening news to slam the ban.

Or for Archbishop Dolan to be interviewed by Oprah about how the ban would take food away from widows and orphans.

Or, since the vote will be in football season, for former Green Bay Packer Esera Tualo to interrupt halftime with a public service announcement that he would be frightened to cross the border into Wisconsin for fear that his husband and kids wouldn't be allowed into the hospital if there were an accident.

Seems that we need both approaches to really move the poll numbers?

 
At 8:07 PM, Anonymous Keith said...

I went back to review the polls, to make sure my pessimism was mistaken, and it's mixed.

March (UWM) 53 yes / 37 no
April (StN) 61 yes / 34 no
July (WisP) 49 yes / 48 no
Augs (WISN) 48 yes / 40 no

Good to see the YES dropping from last month, albeit only by a wee dram.

But the NO dropped by a quantum leap, back to where we were in the spring. And that was my cause for worry.

 
At 11:54 AM, Anonymous Bob said...

I agree. Is there going to be a big time TV blitz? Because that is what moves the needle. Door to door is great, but it's going to be limited in its effectiveness.

 
At 2:32 PM, Anonymous Jan Olson said...

Retail politics is the most effective. When your neighbor sees you at the door urging you to vote a certain way, it really means something, whereas the ads on tv are likely what is playing while your neighbor is going to the refrigerator to look for a snack.

 

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