We're in This Game, and We're in It to Win

A new St. Norbert's College/Wisconsin Public Radio poll finds 51% of respondents support the civil unions and marriage ban, and 44% oppose it.

This is very good news. It suggests we're closing the gap.

The last times St. Norbert's polled on the amendment, they did not ask respondents about the complete amendment. They only asked about the first sentence. The first time they polled on this question was in April 2004. At the time, 66% said they supported "an amendment to the Wisconsin Constitution to define marriage as between one man and one woman."

The April 2006 St. Norbert's poll, with similar language, found 61% supported the amendment, with 34% opposed.

That's a 10% gain in the no vote.

I think the new figures show what we've known all along. When people understand the full scope of the ban, they move in our direction.

No poll can ever be relied upon to precisely predict the final outcome on Election Day. With television ads and our canvasses still focused on reaching persuadable voters, we will be able to move a few more percentage points. And then our massive get-out-the-vote operation will kick into high gear right before the election, delivering us over the finish line with a majority no vote.

From the inside, it's completely obvious to me that our campaign is catching fire like never before. Every single week, we continue to talk to thousands of voters. Every office is inundated with volunteers every night of the week. Independent groups continue to hold forums and debates. Students are mobilizing on campuses everywhere from River Falls to Carthage College. People are talking to friends and family. And the media continues to focus on this debate.

We're in this game, and we're in it to win.


At 2:03 PM, Anonymous Keith said...

I agree with you, Josh, that there was a certain segment of folks, consistently about 10% of the electorate, who were inclined to vote YES, because they didn't realize what voting YES really means.

In my experience, we seem to have reached those voters. Since this summer, and our ad buys, everyone in Wisconsin is now educated on the ban.

Now a second poll since then shows that 51% of voters will vote YES.

I think that education is complete, and that half of the great people of Wisconsin simply want to run us out of town.

At this point, Get Out The Vote is our only chance. We NO voters are voting for our lives and families and those of our friends. So we are likely to turn out in higher numbers.

With luck, the YES voters will be too soured to bother to vote at all.

Were I you and Mike, I would target grass roots on traditional G.O.T.V. And I would target ad dollars on going negative:
* Inspire panic in the NO voter. (Julaine hates you and will eat your children if given the opportunity.)
* Inspire disgust in the YES voter. (Julaine just wants to eat your neighbors' children.)

At 5:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Keep this in mind: almost all polls are based on telehone calls to land line telephones with people who have the time to respond to questions. There is tremendous disparity in the votes by age group. Younger people understand why we should vote No. We also happen to be the group least likely to have land lines.

It is absolutely crucial to push the get out the vote campaign among young people. On November 7, we all have to actively encourage peopel to go vote No. If we are in positions to let people off of work to go vote, we should do so. If we can take off of work that day to spread the word, we should do so. We can win this folks!

At 9:47 PM, Blogger neonprimetime said...

I blog about this daily. Don't base your opinions on polls. Especially a weak one like the St. Norberts one. I mean seriously, they had Doyle winning by 13%!!! They intereviewed an extremely liberal subset of Wisconsinites.

At 1:34 PM, Blogger Communitygal said...

anon says if we're in a position to let people off work to vote, we should do so.

Actually, the law REQUIRES employers to let employees off to vote, up to 3 hours, while the polls are open. Employers do not have to pay people for the time they take off, but they cannot penalize employees for taking that time. The statute, Wis. Stat. sec. 6.76, says (in part): "Any person entitled to vote at an election is entitled to be absent from work while the polls are open for a period not to exceed 3 successive hours to vote. The elector [i.e., employee] shall notify the affected employer before election day of the intended absence. The employer may deisgnate the time of the day for the absence."

So, if you can't vote early, and you need time off to vote, be sure to check in with the boss about it. They can pick the 3 hour window, but they cannot deny you the time off if you tell them you're taking it!


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